India and China, the world’s two most populous nations, have long been subjects of comparison in discussions about emerging global superpowers. Both countries have experienced rapid economic growth and have made significant strides in various sectors. However, the question remains: Can India surpass China in the race to become the next global superpower?
Demographic Dynamics
In April 2023, India overtook China to become the world’s most populous country. This demographic shift has led to speculations about India’s potential to surpass China economically and politically. India’s birth rate is almost twice that of China, and it has outpaced China in economic growth for the past two years—its GDP grew 6.1% in the last quarter, compared with China’s 4.5%.
However, a larger population also presents challenges, such as the need for job creation, infrastructure development, and social services. While India’s youthful population offers a potential demographic dividend, it requires substantial investment in education, healthcare, and employment opportunities to harness this potential effectively.
Economic Growth and Challenges
India’s economy has shown impressive growth rates in recent years, positioning it as one of the fastest-growing major economies. The government’s initiatives to improve infrastructure, promote digitalization, and attract foreign investment have contributed to this upward trajectory. However, sustaining this growth is contingent upon addressing several structural issues.
One significant concern is the underinvestment in human capital. China’s rapid economic ascent has been attributed to substantial investments in education and healthcare, leading to a more productive workforce. In contrast, India’s human capital development has lagged. The World Bank’s 2020 Human Capital Index, which measures countries’ education and health outcomes on a scale of 0 to 1, gave India a score of 0.49, below Nepal and Kenya, both poorer countries. China scored 0.65, similar to the much richer (in per capita terms) Chile and Slovakia.
Additionally, India’s female labor force participation rate has fallen from 32% in 1990 to around 25% in recent years. In contrast, China’s rate, although it has decreased, remains significantly higher at approximately 62%. This disparity indicates that India is not fully utilizing its human resources, which could impede its economic progress.
Technological and Educational Advancements
China has made remarkable strides in technological innovation and education. Seven Chinese universities are ranked among the world’s top 100, with Tsinghua and Peking among the top 20. Tsinghua is considered the world’s leading university for computer science, while Peking is ranked ninth. Likewise, nine Chinese universities are among the top 50 globally in mathematics. By contrast, no Indian university, including the celebrated Indian Institutes of Technology, is ranked among the world’s top 100.
This emphasis on higher education and research has positioned China at the forefront of various technological sectors, including artificial intelligence, renewable energy, and telecommunications. India, while boasting a robust information technology sector, needs to invest more in research and development to compete on a global scale.
Geopolitical Influence
China’s global influence has expanded through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which aims to develop infrastructure and investment projects across Asia, Europe, and Africa. This strategy has strengthened China’s economic ties and increased its geopolitical clout. India has expressed concerns over the BRI, particularly projects in neighboring countries, viewing them as encroachments into its sphere of influence.
Furthermore, China’s aggressive ocean exploration beyond its territorial waters, driven by both scientific research and military interests, has elicited protests from several countries, including India. Despite the protests, China persists with lengthy missions to map the seabed, providing data crucial for various applications, including military operations.
India’s geopolitical influence is being tested by China’s growing presence in the region. Historically asserting dominance over its neighbors due to its superior position post-independence, India now faces a more balanced power dynamic. Countries in South Asia are leveraging the competition between India and China to gain more favorable terms for their development while maintaining strategic autonomy.
Political Landscape and Governance
India’s democratic framework is often contrasted with China’s single-party system. While democracy offers avenues for public participation and accountability, it can also lead to policy paralysis and slower decision-making processes. China’s centralized governance allows for swift implementation of policies, which has been advantageous in executing large-scale infrastructure projects and economic reforms.
However, India’s democratic setup fosters a pluralistic society where diverse voices can contribute to nation-building. The challenge lies in balancing this diversity with effective governance to implement policies that drive economic and social development.
While India has the potential to emerge as a global superpower, surpassing China requires addressing critical challenges. Investments in human capital, particularly in education and healthcare, are essential to create a skilled and productive workforce. Enhancing female labor force participation and promoting gender equality can further boost economic growth. Additionally, focusing on technological innovation and strengthening geopolitical strategies will be crucial.
China’s head start in these areas means that India must adopt comprehensive and sustained efforts to bridge the gap. The journey to superpower status is multifaceted, involving economic prowess, technological advancement, geopolitical influence, and social development. India’s progress in these domains will determine its ability to not only match but potentially surpass China’s global standing in the future.